国际能源体系变迁及其对中国国际战略环境的影响/Changes in the Global Energy System: Implications for China's International Strategic Environment

Abstract

本文先对此轮国际油价暴跌的主要原因及未来走势作一简要分析，而后阐述造成当前国际能源体系变迁的三个主要原因，即全球能源消费中心东移、美国成为主要油气生产国、石油输出国组织（欧佩克）影响力大幅下降。这三大因素共同推动着国际能源战略格局的演变，塑造着世界能源新秩序，也对中国的国际战略环境产生了重要影响。在可预见的将来，国际能源体系变迁可能使中国从中东地区进口石油面临更大的不确定性，并使中国承受更多来自美国的战略压力，同时也使中国对世界能源格局和经济政治的影响力有所上升。

This article briefly discusses major reasons for the slump of international oil prices and provides a prediction for the future development of international oil prices, before analyzing the three factors leading to significant changes of the global energy system, namely the eastward shift of the world energy consumption centre, the emergence of the United States as a major oil producer and the dramatic waning of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) influence. These factors and developments are shaping a new order of the global energy strategic landscape and exerting profound influence on China’s international strategic environment. In the foreseeable future, these changes of the global energy system would bring China more uncertainties regarding the country’s oil imports from the Middle East, more strategic pressure from the United States, while promoting China’s leverage on the global energy system and international relations.