试析“六方会谈”各方在朝核问题上的地缘政治博弈 / An Analysis of the Geopolitical Game among the Parties of the "Six Party Talks" on the DPRK Nuclear Issue

Abstract

国际社会通常认为相关国家在朝核问题上的博弈是一场扩散与反扩散博弈。本文认为，朝鲜核问题的战略本质是相关方在扩散与反扩散博弈旗号下的一场地缘政治博弈，扩散与反扩散博弈固然重要，却不是其本质。朝鲜核问题之所以进进退退，不时高潮迭起，之所以陷入“无解”僵局，是由于国际社会是按扩散与反扩散博弈的政治逻辑认知、判断、处置一个地缘政治问题，其结果必然是药不对症。要从根本上解决朝鲜核问题，需要国际社会重新认识朝鲜核问题的地缘政治本质，从地缘政治角度谋求合理解决。

The international community generally believes that the game on the DPRK nuclear issue among related countries is about proliferation and nonproliferation. This paper argues that DPRK’s nuclear issue is a geopolitical game in essence, and only looks like a game about proliferation. The struggle between proliferation and nonproliferation is an important element of the game, but it does reflect its essence. The DPRK nuclear issue is caught in a deadlock with no solution in sight due to the fact that the international society tries to conceive, judge and solve this geopolitical problem based on the logics of a nonproliferation issue. The result is that the international community cannot come up with the right solution to this conundrum, just like a doctor prescribing the wrong medicine for an illness. In order to fundamentally resolve the DPRK nuclear issue, the international community needs to revisit the geopolitical essence of this issue and seek a reasonable solution from the perspective of geopolitics.