印度对印太外交的考虑及其局限: India’s Indo-Pacific Diplomacy and its Limitations

Abstract

India’s Indo-Pacific diplomacy is born out of its ‘Look East’ policy, initially aimed at extending its influence into the Asia-Pacific region. Modi’s June 2018 address at the Shangri La Dialogue marked New Delhi’s full embracing of the Indo-Pacific concept. Thereafter, Indo-Pacific diplomacy, or such a vision, has become a new pillar of Indian foreign policy, and a new angle through which it is observed. India’s Indo- Pacific diplomacy will continue to put emphasis on its relationship with ASEAN and respect for ASEAN’s centrality in regional security cooperation. Meanwhile, India is expected to strengthen multilevel exchanges and cooperation in different areas with like-minded countries such as the US, Japan, and Australia, and continue to engage in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – but probably keep a relatively low profile. Though it may share common interests with the US in dealing with a rising China, India so far seems to prefer hedging its bets on both China and the US, and is reluctant to
choose a side too early. Consequently, India’s Indo-Pacific diplomacy will maintain a relatively clear-cut strategic independence. Limitations of India’s Indo-Pacific diplomacy include: the kind of competition and confusion that seems to exist between its two ambitions, i.e. the Indian Ocean region as India’s paramount strategic focus, and the Asia-Pacific as the hub of its Indo-Pacific diplomacy; ASEAN’s centrality may be diminished by the Indo-Pacific; and India’s simultaneous engagement with Quad and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may leave the awkward impression of straddling two boats.