自主开发与国际市场：新格局下的中国页岩气战略 / Self-Development and International Market: A Strategy for China’s Shale Gas Revolution

Abstract

员欣依 戚凯

【摘要】近年来，美国本土的页岩气开采呈现了迅猛增长的势态，在此背景之下，国际能源格局开始出现了战略性的新变化。与此同时，受美国巨大成功的启发与刺激，中国也有意掀起页岩气的勘探与开发热潮，政府部门及油气生产企业对页岩气开发抱有较高的期待，学界也开始对此予以了较多的关注。在信心和乐观之下，我们必须注意仍然要保持应有的冷静思考的态度和能力，既要关注页岩气大规模开发背后带有的高度的复杂性和风险，又要注意具有战略意义的页岩气资源必须受到应有的重视和必要的开发。同时坚持长期的自主开发战略和近期的利用国际市场战略，将是一种较为明智的选择。

In recent years, the shale gas production in the U.S. has experienced a rapid development due to new features in the international energy structure. Inspired by American success, China intended to set off a similar shale gas revolution. The government, industries and academic world paid increasing attention to this issue. On one hand, we may be confident and stay optimistic about the possible future, on the other hand, we still have to maintain prudence and reason. A large-scale exploitation of shale gas often co-exists with unpredictable risks. A comprehensive deployment of long-term and short term developments would be more reliable as well as safer for China’s energy security.