Decision-making under uncertainty: A Brehmerian approach

Abstract

This article discusses the contributions of the late Professor Berndt Brehmer with an emphasis on dynamic decision making under uncertainty. This concept has a long history as ambiguity implied in selective attention, later emphasised by prospect theory, which incorporates a time dimension. Time may be a solution to problems of uncertainty, not least the timing of decisions with each other and with environmental developments. This approach sees  decision making, from a process perspective, ultimately asking whether it makes sense to frame decisions as specific events or as an expression of an ongoing design process where the possibility spaces are expanded rather than limited to decision making among pre-existing alternatives. A dynamic view of the time dimension also encourages decision making as learning through probing actions and negotiation and collaboration, as well as with the environment. As much as this may sound like a recipe for managing second-track processes, it is also a recipe for managing through direct interaction, albeit a less-than-objective one understood through the biased perception of boundedly rational actors.