Modelling the demand for overnight tours between East and West Denmark: Insights from the update of the Grøn Mobilitetsmodel

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Resumé

Overnight travel between East and West Denmark differs substantially from daily travel patterns, necessitating dedicated demand models. This study presents updated overnight travel models for the Grøn MobilitetsModel (GMM), one of Denmark’s primary tools for evaluating infrastructure projects. Key enhancements include finer geographic resolution, explicit representation of long-distance buses, differentiation of car travel alternatives, and integration of 2023 survey data.
Logit-based discrete choice models are developed to predict tour generation, mode choice, and destination choice for long-distance overnight travel in Denmark. Estimation draws on five travel surveys, updated level-of-service (LoS) data, and revised values of travel time (VTT). The results indicate that travelers between major Danish cities are more likely to choose air, public transport, or long-distance bus over car, compared to those whose trips originate and/or end elsewhere. Higher-income individuals are less likely to
travel by public transport, long-distance bus, or as car passengers. Greater car availability increases the likelihood of selecting car travel between East and West Denmark. As expected, longer travel times and higher costs reduce the attractiveness of an alternative. Destination job availability has a strong influence on work/business tours, while hotel capacity and the presence of summer houses at a destination are more decisive factors for leisure tours.