Application of Models based on Stated and Revealed Preference Data for Forecasting Danish International Freight Transport

Abstract

Under the umbrella of TRANSFORSK '95 projects, TetraPlan AS has developed a mode choice model for Danish international freight transport. The objective of the model is to forecast the future demands for rail and sea transports relative to lorry transport, when supply variables change. To achieve the above goal a number of ideas are built in the model structure. These ideas are listed below:

* To combine data in the model structure not only different in their nature, i.e., revealed and/vs. stated preference data, but also data collected in a number of independent domestic freight projects,

* To include as many variables in the model structure, which can be found in the revealed preference data, and measure their importance in the fore-casts relative to transport costs and transport time, and

* To find a method of how variables found only in the stated preference data can be used for the forecasting purposes.