Agreeing on the future – Long term transport planning, a trial in Copenhagen

Resumo

Making long-term forecasts implies dealing with a considerable amount of uncertainty. In this paper, there is a brief review of some of the methods used to predict and plan long-term mobility demand and the strengths and flaws of these methods are discussed. With the purpose of picturing Copenhagen’s mobility for the years beyond 2050, the “Future Workshop” method was used in order to organize a participatory meeting among young persons involved with mobility and city planning. In the workshop three different long-term future visions were elaborated and for the purpose of this paper analyzed under the Triple Access System theory prism. Among the three envisaged futures, two of them seem to imply an increase in physical mobility demand, while one expects a reduction. This reduction in mobility demand is expected to be partly substituted by increased spatial proximity and digital connectivity.