A preliminary assessment of sustainable aviation fuel potentials from municipal, agricultural, and plantation wastes in Indonesia

Abstract

Decarbonising the aviation sector demands innovative strategies, with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emerging as a promising solution. Although Indonesia has pledged to adopt SAF, empirical assessments of its production potential remain scarce. This study addresses the gap by estimating SAF output using secondary data on municipal solid waste (MSW), rice residues, and palm residues. These inputs are geospatially mapped across Indonesia’s provinces to identify spatial distribution and feasibility. Importantly, the estimation method is designed to be straightforward and readily replicable, allowing for rapid preliminary SAF assessments in other national contexts. Our analysis indicates a national production potential of approximately 37.06 M m³/yr, with palm residues contributing 77%, rice residues 18%, and MSW 6%. Sumatra exhibits the greatest potential, attributable to its extensive palm oil infrastructure. Critically, Sumatra’s renewable power capacity in the future could substantially offset the energy-related emissions from SAF production. These findings underscore the value of aligning waste feedstock availability with renewable energy capacity, while recognising competing resource demands. This study offers foundational data to guide supply chain and techno-economic analyses, as well as supports strategic planning for SAF deployment across Indonesia’s regions.