Energy modelling as a tool for curbing energy crisis and enhancing transition to sustainable energy system in Nigeria

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Ahmad Garba Khaleel
Milindo Chakrabarti

Abstract

The relevance of energy in the growth and development process necessitate giving serious attention to the planning, production and consumption of energy. This is usually referred to as energy planning and analysis or modelling carried out in recent years using sophisticated and computerized models. These models rely heavily on future assumptions regarding the expected economic conditions in consideration to the current and unfolding situations of the economies in question. However, due to uncertainty of the future economic conditions of especially developing economies, these assumptions are mostly found unable to adequately capture the evolving events. This is more evident if one looks at the alternative energy projections made by different organizations using different understandings and assumptions. This study compares the best electricity demand and supply projections of NECAL2050 as the best energy model in Nigeria and other alternatives projections by [6, 13,] and previous Energy Commission of Nigeria - ECN’s energy models by [14] to show case the discrepancies and their economic consequences. Policy implications and recommendations are discussed at the end.

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