Optimal electricity supply system under Iranian framework limitations to meet its emission pledge under the Paris climate agreement

Abstract

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, Iran pledged to decrease 4 percent of its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from 2020 to 2030. About 29% of total emission in Iran belongs to electricity supply while energy consumption in other sectors (transport, household, and industry) have a lower share in CO₂ emission. The main concern here is finding the optimal mix of power plants in the electricity supply system that should be deployed to meet Iran’s mentioned respective targets. So, we developed a non-linear mathematical programming model for Iran’s electricity system to address this concern. Results show that a 10-20% diffusion of renewable energy and converting gas turbine power plants to gas combined cycle technology with 5% annual rate can satisfy Iran’s emissions pledge under the Paris Climate Accord. Finally, this model has been run for years between 2017-2030. Four scenarios have also been prepared based on different Iranian Five-Year Development Plans.