Disruption, Disaster and Transition: Analysis of Electricity Usage in Japan from 2005 to 2016

Abstract

This research analyzes the changes to electricity generation and demand in Japan following both the Global Financial Crisis and Disaster of March 2011. Monthly electricity demand and generation data for all regions of Japan from April 2005 to March 2016 were reviewed to identify differences in disruption-response between different types of electricity users. We apply inferential statistics to identify underlying trends, which we find are dominated by differences in user scale response. Higher capacity users reduced demand in response to the Global Financial Crisis, whereas smaller domestic scale users reduced electricity demand after the Disaster. Analysis reveals that regions within the 50Hz grid that were directly impacted by the Fukushima event and resulting load restrictions showed a statistically significant sustained reduction in monthly electricity demand post-disaster. However, Kansai and Shikoku, regions that are both outside the area directly impacted by the Fukushima event, also showed the same sorts of sustained significant reductions. By considering two disruptions to the same sociotechnical system we can draw conclusions that add to the discourse of electricity use behaviors, which informs both disaster response planning and policy for the broader issues of electricity demand reduction for climate stabilisation. In particular, the results highlight the importance of tailoring engagement and intervention actions to the preferences and needs of different types of electricity users.