Evaluation of the heating share of household electricity consumption using statistical analysis: a case study of Tirana, Albania

Abstract

Albania’s residential sector represents a large share of the country’s energy consumption, especially of electric power. Other important characteristics of the sector include fast growing energy demand and a high level of energy losses, which challenge the possibility of sustainable development. A large share of the electricity demand is used for heating purposes – a demand that could potentially be met in a more energy efficient manner. However, the precise portion of electricity used to meet heat needs is unknown. The main objective of this article is thus to determine the share of electricity used for heating in the largest Albanian city

Based on a sample of households in Tirana, a statistical model is established and applied to perform a regression analysis to derive an estimation of household electricity demand. The heating share of the domestic electricity consumption is then quantified using additional information validated by actual measurements. The distribution of the  electricity  consumption data is better understood through an analysis of heat-related electricity consumption. Additionally, the monthly relative share of household electricity consumption reveals the number of households with electricity demand  above the monthly 300kWh limit established by the Albanian Energy Regulatory Authority, which must be met in order to avoid triggering a higher electricity tariff. It is suggested that household  electricity consumption will continue to grow in the near future, due to rising incomes and changing climatic conditions that are influencing the amount of heat used by Albanians, who rely primarily on electricity to heat their homes.