An Analysis of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Implementation of Renewable Energy in the Supply of Electricity
Main Article Content
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has affected all activities, including the electricity supply. As a developing nation, Indonesia is also severely affected by the diversion of significant resources to combat Covid-19. On the other hand, Indonesia is committed to reducing emissions in the energy sector, which includes implementing renewable energy technologies to provide electricity. This article examines the effect of the post-covid-19 pandemic situation on the implementation of renewable energy in the electricity supply. The case study examined is the electricity supply in the province of Yogyakarta, which obtains its electricity from outside the province but has multiple forms of renewable energy that can be optimized in the electricity supply. There are three scenarios discussed: the current target scenario, the lower target scenario, and the supply security scenario. The current target scenario includes predetermined renewable energy goals. The lower target scenario is used to characterize Covid-19's impact on the implementation of renewable energy. The supply security scenario is the most optimistic, as it optimizes the use of renewable energy in the electricity supply while ignoring the impact of the co-19 pandemic. The current target scenario is used as a benchmark against which the other two scenarios are compared. Comparing the lower target scenario to the current target scenario, the lower target scenario results in 9.6% lower capital costs and 4.1% higher greenhouse gas emissions. The least greenhouse gas emissions are produced by the supply security scenario, but the capacity costs are the highest.
Article Details
Articles published in International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management are following the license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License: Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivs (by-nc-nd). Further information about Creative Commons
Authors can archive post-print (final draft post-refereering) on personal websites or institutional repositories under these conditions:
- Publishers version cannot be stored elsewhere but on publishers homepage
- Published source must be acknowledged
- Must link to publisher version
References
OECD, “COVID-19 crisis response in MENA countries,” 2020. Accessed: Oct. 26, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=129_129919-4li7bq8asv&title=COVID-19-Crisis-Response-in-MENA-Countries
The World Bank, “Coping with a dual shock: covid-19 and oil prices,” 2020. Accessed: Oct. 26, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=129_129919-4li7bq8asv&title=COVID-19-Crisis-Response-in-MENA-Countries
IEA, “Covid-19 impact on electricity,” 2020. https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity (accessed Oct. 26, 2022).
Statistics Indonesia, “Electricity Statistics 2015–2020,” 2021. Accessed: Oct. 26, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2021/12/16/c35442a07336f25d42609164/statistik-listrik-2015---2020.html
MEMR, “Greenhouse Gas Emission of Energy Sector,” 2013. Accessed: Dec. 02, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/Kajian_Inventarisasi_Emisi_Gas_Rumah_Kaca_Sektor_Energi_Tahun_2013.pdf
MEMR, “National Energy Road Map of Indonesia,” 2017. Accessed: Oct. 26, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/content-rencana-umum-energi-nasional-ruen.pdf
M. Jaccard, Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy. 2006. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754104.
J. Keirstead, M. Jennings, and A. Sivakumar, “A review of urban energy system models: Approaches, challenges and opportunities,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 16, no. 6. pp. 3847–3866, Aug. 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.047.
T. Witt, M. Dumeier, and J. Geldermann, “Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios,” J Clean Prod, vol. 242, Jan. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414.
S. C. Bhattacharyya and G. R. Timilsina, “A review of energy system models,” International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 494–518, 2010, https://doi.org/ 10.1108/17506221011092742.
Dioha MO, “Energy system models for Sub-Saharan African countries - a systematic review,” JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, vol. 8, no. 4, 2017, Accessed: Dec. 08, 2022. [Online]. Available: http://www.energy-cie.ro/archives/2017/nr_4/v8-n4-5.pdf
M. O. Dioha and N. V. Emodi, “Investigating the impacts of energy access scenarios in the Nigerian household sector by 2030,” Resources, vol. 8, no. 3, Sep. 2019, https://doi.org/10.3390/resources8030127.
R. Murphy and M. Jaccard, “Energy efficiency and the cost of GHG abatement: A comparison of bottom-up and hybrid models for the US,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 11, pp. 7146–7155, Nov. 2011, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.033.
H. Dai, T. Masui, Y. Matsuoka, and S. Fujimori, “Assessment of China’s climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 2875–2887, May 2011, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.062.
A. Espinoza, S. Bautista, P. C. Narváez, M. Alfaro, and M. Camargo, “Sustainability assessment to support governmental biodiesel policy in Colombia: A system dynamics model,” J Clean Prod, vol. 141, pp. 1145–1163, Jan. 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.168.
R. L. Carvalho et al., “Household air pollution mitigation with integrated biomass/cookstove strategies in Western Kenya,” Energy Policy, vol. 131, pp. 168–186, Aug. 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.026.
L. Setiartiti and R. A. Al Hasibi, “Low carbon-based energy strategy for transportation sector development,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 19, pp. 29–44, Feb. 2019, https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.2019.19.4.
R. A. Al Hasibi and S. P. Hadi, “An Integrated Renewable Energy System for the Supply of Electricity and Hydrogen Energy for Road Transportation Which Minimizes Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 35, pp. 65–82, Sep. 2022, https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.7039.
X. Zhang, Y. Chen, P. Jiang, L. Liu, X. Xu, and Y. Xu, “Sectoral peak CO2 emission measurements and a long-term alternative CO2 mitigation roadmap: A case study of Yunnan, China,” J Clean Prod, vol. 247, Feb. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119171.
P. Misila, P. Winyuchakrit, and B. Limmeechokchai, “Thailand’s long-term GHG emission reduction in 2050: the achievement of renewable energy and energy efficiency beyond the NDC,” Heliyon, vol. 6, no. 12, Dec. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05720.
E. K. Bawan and R. A. al Hasibi, “Contributing to Low Emission Development through Regional Energy Planning in West Papua,” Int J Adv Sci Eng Inf Technol, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 2203–2210, 2022, http://dx.doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.12.6.14505.
Y. Li et al., “Optimal generation expansion planning model of a combined thermal–wind–PV power system considering multiple boundary conditions: A case study in Xinjiang, China,” Energy Reports, vol. 7, pp. 515–522, Nov. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.01.020.
R. A. Al Hasibi, “Multi-objective analysis of sustainable generation expansion planning based on renewable energy potential: A case study of Bali province of Indonesia,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 31, pp. 189–210, 2021, https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.6474.
M. G. Prina, D. Moser, R. Vaccaro, and W. Sparber, “EPLANopt optimization model based on EnergyPLAN applied at regional level: The future competition on excess electricity production from renewables,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 27, no. Special Issue, pp. 35–50, 2020, https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.3504.
A. J. C. Pereira and J. T. Saraiva, “A decision support system for generation expansion planning in competitive electricity markets,” Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 80, no. 7, pp. 778–787, Jul. 2010, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2009.12.003.
C. Guo, M. Bodur, and D. J. Papageorgiou, “Generation expansion planning with revenue adequacy constraints,” Comput Oper Res, vol. 142, Jun. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2022.105736.
A. Davoodi, A. R. Abbasi, and S. Nejatian, “Multi-objective techno-economic generation expansion planning to increase the penetration of distributed generation resources based on demand response algorithms,” International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 138, Jun. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2021.107923.
C. G. Heaps, “LEAP: The Low Emission Analysis Platform.” Stockholm Environment Institute, Somerville, MA., USA, 2022. Accessed: Dec. 07, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://leap.sei.org
Y. Ayuketah, S. Gyamfi, F. A. Diawuo, and A. S. Dagoumas, “Power generation expansion pathways: A policy analysis of the Cameroon power system,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 44, p. 101004, Nov. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.101004.
V. Wambui, F. Njoka, J. Muguthu, and P. Ndwali, “Scenario analysis of electricity pathways in Kenya using Low Emissions Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling system for optimization,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 168, Oct. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112871.
R. D. H. Fonseca and F. Gardumi, “Assessing the Impact of Applying Individual Discount Rates in Power System Expansion of Ecuador Using OSeMOSYS,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 33, pp. 35–52, Feb. 2022, https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.6820.
P. A. Østergaard, H. Lund, J. Z. Thellufsen, P. Sorknæs, and B. V. Mathiesen, “Review and validation of EnergyPLAN,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 168. Elsevier Ltd, Oct. 01, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112724.
M. Ku. Babu and P. Ray, “Sensitivity analysis, optimal design, cost and energy efficiency study of a hybrid forecast model using HOMER pro,” Journal of Engineering Research, vol. 11, no. 2, p. 100033, Jun. 2023, https://10.1016/j.jer.2023.100033.
C. G. Heaps, “LEAP: The Low Emissions Analysis Platform. [Software version: 2020.1.81],” Somerville, MA, USA, 2020. Accessed: Nov. 01, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://leap.sei.org
A. Martinez Soto and M. F. Jentsch, “Comparison of prediction models for determining energy demand in the residential sector of a country,” Energy Build, vol. 128, pp. 38–55, Sep. 2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.06.063.
Z. Dalala, M. Al-Omari, M. Al-Addous, M. Bdour, Y. Al-Khasawneh, and M. Alkasrawi, “Increased renewable energy penetration in national electrical grids constraints and solutions,” Energy, vol. 246, May 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123361.
A. B. Owolabi, B. Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon, J. Wook Roh, D. Suh, and J. S. Huh, “Measurement and verification analysis on the energy performance of a retrofit residential building after energy efficiency measures using RETScreen Expert,” Alexandria Engineering Journal, vol. 59, no. 6, pp. 4643–4657, Dec. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2020.08.022.
R. Kannan, “The development and application of a temporal MARKAL energy system model using flexible time slicing,” Appl Energy, vol. 88, no. 6, pp. 2261–2272, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.12.066.
M. Kilic and E. Ozdemir, “Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Projections and Evaluations for Turkey,” in Exergetic, Energetic and Environmental Dimensions, 2018, pp. 115–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813734-5.00007-X.
M. A. H. Mondal, E. Bryan, C. Ringler, D. Mekonnen, and M. Rosegrant, “Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions,” Energy, vol. 149, pp. 161–172, Apr. 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.02.067.
M. Shahid, K. Ullah, K. Imran, A. Mahmood, and M. Arentsen, “LEAP simulated economic evaluation of sustainable scenarios to fulfill the regional electricity demand in Pakistan,” Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, vol. 46, Aug. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101292.
K. Handayani, T. Filatova, Y. Krozer, and P. Anugrah, “Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: Analysis of a long-term power system expansion,” Appl Energy, vol. 262, Mar. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114485.
R. K. Padi and A. Chimphango, “Assessing the potential of integrating cassava residues-based bioenergy into national energy mix using long-range Energy Alternatives Planning systems approach,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 145, Jul. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111071.
D. Yang, D. Liu, A. Huang, J. Lin, and L. Xu, “Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 135, Jan. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110116.
T. Uhorakeye and B. Möller, “Assessment of a climate-resilient and low-carbon power supply scenario for Rwanda,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 17, pp. 45–60, Jun. 2018, https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.2018.17.5.
L. B. Melo, A. L. Costa, F. B. G. L. Estanislau, C. E. Velasquez, A. Fortini, and G. N. P. Moura, “Water-energy-emissions nexus – an integrated analysis applied to a case study,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 36, pp. 19–32, 2022, https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.7349.
M. A. Raza et al., “Energy demand and production forecasting in Pakistan,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 39, Jan. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2021.100788.
R. Nasir, S. R. Ahmad, and M. Shahid, “Emission reduction energy model of Punjab: A case study,” J Clean Prod, vol. 329, Dec. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129755.
I. P. Acosta-Pazmiño, C. I. Rivera-Solorio, and M. Gijón-Rivera, “Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030,” Appl Energy, vol. 298, Sep. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117202.
V. Subramanyam, M. Ahiduzzaman, and A. Kumar, “Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential in the commercial and institutional sector,” Energy Build, vol. 140, pp. 295–304, Apr. 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.02.007.
M. Shahid, K. Ullah, K. Imran, N. Masroor, and M. B. Sajid, “Economic and environmental analysis of green transport penetration in Pakistan,” Energy Policy, vol. 166, Jul. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113040.
R. L. Carvalho et al., “Household air pollution mitigation with integrated biomass/cookstove strategies in Western Kenya,” Energy Policy, vol. 131, pp. 168–186, Aug. 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.026.
A. Sapkota, Z. Lu, H. Yang, and J. Wang, “Role of renewable energy technologies in rural communities’ adaptation to climate change in Nepal,” Renew Energy, vol. 68, pp. 793–800, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.03.003.
Statistics Indonesia, “Population Data,” 2020. Accessed: Dec. 29, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/subject/12/kependudukan.html#subjekViewTab3
Statistics Indonesia, “Economy Data,” 2020. Accessed: Dec. 29, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/subject/11/produk-domestik-bruto--lapangan-usaha-.html#subjekViewTab3
MEMR, “Energy survey of transportation sector,” 2012.
PLN, “The Statistics of National Electricity Company 2020,” 2020. Accessed: Jan. 02, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://web.pln.co.id/statics/uploads/2021/07/Statistik-PLN-2020.pdf
EDF, “The true cost of carbon pollution-How the social cost of carbon improves policies to address climate change,” 2023. Accessed: Jun. 09, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.edf.org/true-cost-carbon-pollution#:~:text=The%20social%20cost%20of%20carbon%20is%20a%20measure,is%20over%20%2450%20per%20ton%20in%20today%27s%20dollars.
IPCC, “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Fifth Assessment Report,” 2013. Accessed: Jan. 03, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/
NREL, “Cost and Performance Data for Power Generation Technologies,” 2012. Accessed: Jan. 03, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/145