Designing an online interactive national energy and climate policy simulation tool to enhance the policy decision making process

Main Article Content

Andra Blumberga
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4712-4794
Karina Zvirbule
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5984-0408
Pal Ingebrigt Davidsen
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9746-4797

Abstract

To reach the Paris Agreement goals, European governments have defined national contributions to the EU binding climate goals and have developed national climate and energy plans for 2021-2030 (NECPs). NECPs are detailed strategies in which governments can flexibly emphasize specific sectors, technologies, and national energy policy choices. Every country has built its own energy modelling capacity for forecasting purposes. In most countries, this national modelling relies on optimization tools such as Markal or TIMES. For Latvia's energy sector, a system dynamics (SD) model was built to complement the TIMES model. The SD model deals with: an integrated energy system, including the primary energy supply and transformation sector; energy distribution and storage system; and energy demand sectors (residential, tertiary, public, industry, and transportation). Sectoral policies are presented in the Stella Architect interface. This study demonstrates how the interactive simulation tool was used in the Environmental Engineering Master level course ‘Environmental Policy and Economics’ as an experiential learning approach. The student assignment involved applying this tool to develop and analyze the energy transition policy package for one of four ideological interest groups: deep greens, bright greens, light greens, and greys. Students had to assume a role and adopt its perspective by applying their border-crossing competence and reflecting on selected policy mixes for that ideology. Various transition pathways, based on different ideologies, illustrate the possibilities for application. Results show that students were successful in fulfilling the assignment.

Article Details

How to Cite
Blumberga, A., Zvirbule, K., & Davidsen, P. I. (2025). Designing an online interactive national energy and climate policy simulation tool to enhance the policy decision making process. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 45, 58–75. https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.9947
Section
Articles

References

[1] UNFCCC. 2015. Decision 1/cp.21-adoption of the Paris agreement. UNFCCC, Paris, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf [Accessed: 26-March-2024]

[2] Holz C., Siegel L., Johnston E., Jones AP., Sterman JD., Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5°C – Trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal, Environmental Research Letters, 13(6): 064028, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac0c1.

[3] IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)

[4] Regulation on the governance of the energy union and climate action (EU)2018/1999, 24 December 2018, EUR-Lex - 02018R1999-20231120 - EN - EUR-Lex , [Accessed 25-March-2024]

[5] De Carolis J., H. Daly., P. Dodds., I. Keppo., F. Li, W. McDowall., et al. Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling, Applied Energy, 194 (2017), pp. 184-198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.001.

[6] Booth Sweeney L., Sterman JD., Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory, System Dynamics Review, 16 (4):- 249-286, 2000, https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.198.

[7] Cronin MA., Gonzalez C., Sterman JD. Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 108(1): 116-130, 2009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003.

[8] Kapmeier F., Happach RM., Tilebein M. 2017, Bathtub dynamics revisited: an examination of déformation professionelle in higher education, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 34(3): 227-249, https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.2407.

[9] Sterman JD. Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world, Climatic Change, 108(4): 811, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3.

[10] Forrester J.M., Some Basic Concepts in System Dynamics, Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009.

[11] Moxnes E., Saysel A.,Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies, Climatic Change, 93(1–2): 15–37, 2009, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9465-2.

[12] Booth Sweeney L, Sterman J., Thinking about systems: students' and their teachers' conceptions of natural and social systems, System Dynamics Review , 23(2–3): 285–312, 2007, https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.366.

[13] Dutt V., Gonzalez C., Decisions from experience reduce misconceptions about climate change, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32(1): 19-29, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2011.10.003.

[14] Sterman JD,Risk communication on climate: mental models and mass balance, Science, 322(5901): 532-533, 2008, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1162574.

[15] Gilbert A., Linking carbon markets: the climate change silver bullet? Energy & Environment, 20(6): 901-926, 2009, https://doi.org/10.1260/095830509789625347.

[16] Kriegler E., Edenhofer O., Reuster L., Luderer G., Klein D, Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate-change mitigation? Climatic Change, 118(1): 45-47, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0681-4.

[17] Forrester J. 1969. Urban Dynamics. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.

[18] Dall-Orsoletta A., Uriona-Maldonado M., Drankaa G., Ferreira P., A review of social aspects integration in system dynamics energy systems models, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol. 36, pp. 33-52, 2022, https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.7478.

[19] Borellia G., Ricciutia S., Shahriar Mahbubc M., Sartoria A., Gasparella A., Pernigotto G., Battini F., Viesia D., Simulation of energy scenarios for the transition of an urban neighborhood into a renewable energy community, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol. 42, pp. 28-47, 2024, https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.8235.

[20] Pearce W., Brown B., Nerlich B., Koteyko N.,Communicating climate change: conduits, content, and consensus, WIREs Climate Change, 6(6): 613-626, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.366.

[21] Sterman JD. 2015. Stumbling towards sustainability: Why organizational learning and radical innovation are necessary to build a more sustainable world—but not sufficient. In Leading sustainable change, Henderson R., Gulati R., Tushman M. (eds). Oxford University Press: Oxford; 51-80.

[22] Lyon TP., Maxwell JW., Greenwash: corporate environmental disclosure under threat of audit, Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 20(1): 3-41, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.938988.

[23] Sterman JD., Siegel L., Rooney-Varga JN.,Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy, Environmental Research Letters, 13(1): 015007, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa512.

[24] Delmas MA., Burbano VC., The drivers of greenwashing, California Management Review, 54(1): 64-87, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1525/cmr.2011.54.1.64.

[25] action, Energy Research & Social Science, 70: 101779, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101779.

[26] Jones AP., Zahar Y., Johnston E., Sterman JD., Siegel L., Ceballos C., Franck T & Kapmeier F. et al. 2019b. En-ROADS User Guide. Climate Interactive and MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative.

[27] Horschig T., Thrän D., Are decisions well supported for the energy transition? A review on modeling approaches for renewable energy policy evaluation, Energy, Sustainability and Society, 7 (2017), https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-017-0107-2.

[28] Ellenbeck S., Lilliestam J., How modelers construct energy costs: Discursive elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models, Energy Research & Social Science, 47 (2019), pp. 69-77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.08.021.

[29] Corell R, Lee K, Stern P. 2009. Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. National Academies Press: Washington, DC, https://doi.org/10.17226/12626.

[30] Savvidis G., Siala K., Weissbart C., Schmidt L., Borggrefe F., Kumar S., et al. The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities, Energy Policy, 125 (2019), pp. 503-520, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.033.

[31] Prina M.G., Manzolini G., Moser D., Nastasi B., Sparber W. Classification and challenges of bottom-up energy system models - A review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 129 (2020),Article 109917, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109917.

[32] Pfenninger S., Hawkes A., Keirstead J., Energy systems modeling for twenty-first century energy challenges, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 33 (2014), pp. 74-86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.02.003.

[33] Guptaa K., Ahlgren E.O., Analysis of City Energy Systems Modeling Case Studies: A Systematic Review, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol. 43, pp. 123-139, 2025, https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.9335.

[34] Chang M., Thellufsen J.Z., Zakeri B., Pickering B., Pfenninger S., Lund H., Østergaard P.A., Trends in tools and approaches for modelling the energy transition, Applied Energy, Vol.290, 2021, 116731, ISSN 0306-2619, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116731.

[35] Suleshini L. Samarasinghe, Moghimi M., Kaparaju P., A review of modelling tools for net-zero emission energy systems, based on model capabilities, modelling criteria and model availability, Renewable Energy Focus, Vol.53, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ref.2024.100659.

[36] Kyetuza Bishoge O., Gladstone Kombec G., Norbert Mviled B., Energy consumption efficiency knowledge, attitudes and behaviour among the community, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol. 31, pp. 175-188, 2021, https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.6153.

[37] Ha Anh H. , Minh Da Hanh T., System Dynamics Analysis of Vietnam’s Energy-related Carbon Emissions: Towards a Net Zero Future, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol. 42, pp. 72-87, 2024, https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.8327.

[38] Blumberga A., Using an interactive simulation tool of national energy and climate policy planning to explore environmental policy options from the perspectives of different interest groups, Systems Research And Behavioral Science, Vol.41, Issue 6, 2024, pp876-893, https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3074.

[39] Blumberga A., Using an interactive simulation tool of national energy and climate policy planning to explore environmental policy options from the perspectives of different interest groups, Systems Research And Behavioral Science, Vol.41, Issue 6, 2024, pp876-893, https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3074.

[40] Lewis J.R., Sauro J. 2021. Usability and user experience: design and evaluation. Handbook of human factors and ergonomics, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373487143_USABILITY_AND_USER_EXPERIENCE_DESIGN_AND_EVALUATION [Accessed 22-December-2024.

[41] Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Latvia, “Cabinet of Ministers Order ‘Latvia’s National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030,’” Latvijas Vēstnesis, vol. 29, Feb. 2020, https://likumi.lv/ta/id/312423-par-latvijas-nacionalo-energetikas-un-klimata-planu-20212030-gadam [Accessed: 3-May-2024]

[42] Cervinska E., Blumberga A., Kalnbaļķite A., and Pubule J., Development of Massive Online Open Course “Energy Transition and Climate Change”, Environmental and Climate Technologies, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 1106–1117, Jan. 2022, https://doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2022-0083.