OTM 8.0 Demand Models: Comprehensive Reestimation and Methodological Advances for Greater Copenhagen

Resumo

This paper presents the re-estimation of the OTM 8.0 travel demand models for Greater Copenhagen,
representing the most significant update of the OTM demand modelling framework since OTM 7.1 (base
year 2015). All tour-frequency and mode-destination models were re-estimated using National Travel
Survey (TU) data from 2016-2019 and 2022-2025, updated 2023 level-of-service data, revised
socioeconomic information, and updated values of travel time.
A key methodological contribution is the separation of the former car-driver alternative into Single-
Occupancy Vehicle (SOV) driver and High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) driver alternatives. Combined with a
revised cost-sharing formulation based on purpose-specific average vehicle occupancies, this improves the
representation of travel-time valuation, cost sensitivity, and substitution patterns between travel modes.
The model also introduces generalized public transport travel times, improving consistency between routechoice
and demand-model representations, together with new distance-correction terms that enhance the
replication of observed tour-length distributions.
The resulting models reproduce observed mode shares and trip-length distributions well across most travel
purposes and generate behaviorally plausible elasticity estimates. Comparisons with OTM 7.1 indicate
improved behavioral realism, particularly for business travel and policies affecting travel costs. The
introduction of separate SOV and HOV alternatives further strengthens the model's ability to evaluate
congestion charging, parking management, and other pricing-based transport policies.
The updated modelling framework provides a robust foundation for transport forecasting and policy
appraisal in Greater Copenhagen, supporting the assessment of future mobility strategies, infrastructure
investments, and sustainability-oriented transport measures.