Multi-decadal assessment of climate variability impacts on solar photovoltaic performance across Indian states
Main Article Content
Abstract
India faces growing reliance on solar photovoltaic (PV) power for its low-carbon transition, yet existing assessments attribute differences in state-level solar performance mainly to policy and economic factors, leaving the contribution of long-term climatic change insufficiently quantified. This study evaluates how multi-decadal changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric aerosols, cloudiness, and temperature have affected PV performance across six Indian states from 1990 to 2023. Using satellite observations, reanalysis meteorological datasets, aerosol metrics, and PV performance modelling, the study derives historical performance-ratio losses attributable to each climatic driver and applies a state-level panel regression to independently test the statistical relationship between climate variables and specific PV yield. A composite climate risk index is then constructed to rank state-level vulnerability, and CMIP6-
based projections extend the analysis to 2040–2060. The results reveal significant performance reductions, primarily driven by aerosol accumulation and rising temperatures, with total losses ranging from 10% to 21% across states; projections indicate further decline under high-emission scenarios, reaching up to 18% in the most exposed northern states. The findings support climate-resilient solar planning,
including region-specific adaptation measures, siting strategies, and the incorporation of climate trends into state-level renewable energy roadmaps.
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