Unlocking Waste Heat Potential for District Heating Systems: An Hourly Mapping Methodology
Main Article Content
Abstract
The transition towards climate-neutral energy systems requires exploiting local renewable and residual energy sources to decarbonise the heating and cooling sector. District Heating and Cooling Networks (DHCNs) are key infrastructures for integrating Waste Heat (WH) into urban energy systems, but comprehensive spatial data on WH availability are often lacking and difficult to retrieve. This study develops a methodology for mapping WH potential from both industrial and tertiary sectors, providing critical information for the decarbonisation and expansion of existing DHCNs. The approach combines open geographic datasets, statistical information, and literature-based coefficients within a structured workflow to estimate potential annual WH availability at different temperature levels, along with its hourly profiles. The outcome is a detailed spatio-temporal characterisation of WH, presented in a geospatial package containing the georeferenced annual WH potential, coupled with a dataset of hourly profiles for each activity during a typical meteorological year. The methodology is applied to a case study in Milan with three main objectives: first, to test and validate the reliability proposed approach; second, to discuss the implications of WH integration in the development of a DHCN modernisation scenario; and third, to assess the uncertainty of waste heat potential estimation through comparison with Danish and Austrian reference databases. Thus, this study offers a replicable framework for WH potential mapping, supporting decision-making and planning for sustainable DHCNs and urban energy transition strategies.
Article Details
Articles published in International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management are following the license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License: Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivs (by-nc-nd). Further information about Creative Commons
Authors can archive post-print (final draft post-refereering) on personal websites or institutional repositories under these conditions:
- Publishers version cannot be stored elsewhere but on publishers homepage
- Published source must be acknowledged
- Must link to publisher version
References
[1] Lund H, Østergaard PA, Yuan M, Sorknæs P, Thellufsen JZ. Energy balancing and storage in climate-neutral smart energy systems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2025;209:115141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2024.115141.
[2] Nielsen S, Sorknæs P, Mathiesen BV, Lund H, Moreno D, Thellufsen JZ. Heating Sector Strategies in Climate-Neutral Societies. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 2024;43:101–22. https://doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.8554.
[3] Hansen K, Breyer C, Lund H. Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems. Energy 2019;175:471–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.092.
[4] Al Khaffaf I, Tamimi A, Ahmed V. Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: A Review of Strategies and Technologies Across Sectors. Energies 2024;17:6129. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17236129.
[5] Lund H, Østergaard PA, Connolly D, Mathiesen BV. Smart energy and smart energy systems. Energy 2017;137:556–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.123.
[6] Sorknæs P, Lund H, Skov IR, Djørup S, Skytte K, Morthorst PE, et al. Smart Energy Markets - Future electricity, gas and heating markets. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2020;119:109655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109655.
[7] Mathiesen BV, Lund H, Connolly D, Wenzel H, Østergaard PA, Möller B, et al. Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions. Applied Energy 2015;145:139–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.075.
[8] Li H, Wang Z, Hong T, Piette MA. Energy flexibility of residential buildings: A systematic review of characterization and quantification methods and applications. Advances in Applied Energy 2021;3:100054. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100054.
[9] Lund H, Østergaard PA, Chang M, Werner S, Svendsen S, Sorknæs P, et al. The status of 4th generation district heating: Research and results. Energy 2018;164:147–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.206.
[10] Lund H, Duic N, Østergaard PA, Mathiesen BV. Future district heating systems and technologies: On the role of smart energy systems and 4th generation district heating. Energy 2018;165:614–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.115.
[11] Moreno D, Nielsen S, Sorknæs P, Lund H, Thellufsen JZ, Mathiesen BV. Exploring the location and use of baseload district heating supply. What can current heat sources tell us about future opportunities? Energy 2024;288:129642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129642.
[12] Lund H, Werner S, Wiltshire R, Svendsen S, Thorsen JE, Hvelplund F, et al. 4th Generation District Heating (4GDH): Integrating smart thermal grids into future sustainable energy systems. Energy 2014;68:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.089.
[13] Mathiesen BV, Lund H, Nielsen S, Sorknæs P, Moreno D, Thellufsen JZ. Varmeplan Danmark 2021 - En Klimaneutral Varmeforsyning. Institut for Planlægning: Aalborg Universitet; 2021.
[14] Buffa S, Cozzini M, D’Antoni M, Baratieri M, Fedrizzi R. 5th generation district heating and cooling systems: A review of existing cases in Europe. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2019;104:504–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.12.059.
[15] Jouhara H, Khordehgah N, Almahmoud S, Delpech B, Chauhan A, Tassou SA. Waste heat recovery technologies and applications. Thermal Science and Engineering Progress 2018;6:268–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tsep.2018.04.017.
[16] Energy Efficiency Directive n.d. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-efficiency-targets-directive-and-rules/energy-efficiency-directive_en (accessed December 2, 2025).
[17] Anania D, Russo G, Palombo A, Orizio F, Fedrizzi R, Cozzini M. Thermal-hydraulic modelling of a flexible substation layout for low-temperature waste heat recovery into district heating. Energy 2025;328:136386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136386.
[18] Huang P, Copertaro B, Zhang X, Shen J, Löfgren I, Rönnelid M, et al. A review of data centers as prosumers in district energy systems: Renewable energy integration and waste heat reuse for district heating. Applied Energy 2020;258:114109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114109.
[19] Ziemele J, Dace E. An analytical framework for assessing the integration of the waste heat into a district heating system: Case of the city of Riga. Energy 2022;254:124285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124285.
[20] Pakere I, Blumberga D, Volkova A, Lepiksaar K, Zirne A. Valorisation of Waste Heat in Existing and Future District Heating Systems. Energies 2023;16:6796. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16196796.
[21] Ao X, Zhang J, Yan R, He Y, Long C, Geng X, et al. More flexibility and waste heat recovery of a combined heat and power system for renewable consumption and higher efficiency. Energy 2025;315:134392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.134392.
[22] Socci L, Rocchetti A, Verzino A, Zini A, Talluri L. Enhancing third-generation district heating networks with data centre waste heat recovery: analysis of a case study in Italy. Energy 2024;313:134013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.134013.
[23] Christodoulides P, Aresti L, Panayiotou GP, Tassou S, Florides GA. Adoption of Waste Heat Recovery Technologies: Reviewing the Relevant Barriers and Recommendations on How to Overcome Them. Oper Res Forum 2022;3:3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43069-021-00108-6.
[24] Wang J, Wang Z, Zhou D, Sun K. Key issues and novel optimization approaches of industrial waste heat recovery in district heating systems. Energy 2019;188:116005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116005.
[25] Ramirez Camargo L, Stoeglehner G. Spatiotemporal modelling for integrated spatial and energy planning. Energ Sustain Soc 2018;8:32. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-018-0174-z.
[26] Spriet J, McNabola A, Neugebauer G, Stoeglehner G, Ertl T, Kretschmer F. Spatial and temporal considerations in the performance of wastewater heat recovery systems. Journal of Cleaner Production 2020;247:119583. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119583.
[27] Pieper H, Mašatin V, Volkova A, Ommen T, Elmegaard B, Markussen WB. Modelling framework for integration of large-scale heat pumps in district heating using low-temperature heat sources: A case study of Tallinn, Estonia. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 2019;20.
[28] Möller B, Nielsen S. High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 2014;1:41–58. https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.2014.1.4.
[29] Burg V, Richardet F, Wälty S, Roshandel R, Hellweg S. Mapping Local Synergies: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Switzerland’s Waste Heat Potentials vs. Heat Demand. Energies 2024;17:106. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17010106.
[30] Jodeiri AM, Goldsworthy MJ, Buffa S, Cozzini M. Role of sustainable heat sources in transition towards fourth generation district heating – A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2022;158:112156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112156.
[31] Kosmadakis G. Estimating the potential of industrial (high-temperature) heat pumps for exploiting waste heat in EU industries. Applied Thermal Engineering 2019;156:287–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2019.04.082.
[32] Dénarié A, Fattori F, Spirito G, Macchi S, Cirillo VF, Motta M, et al. Assessment of waste and renewable heat recovery in DH through GIS mapping: The national potential in Italy. Smart Energy 2021;1:100008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segy.2021.100008.
[33] Albert MDA, Bennett KO, Adams CA, Gluyas JG. Waste heat mapping: A UK study. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2022;160:112230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112230.
[34] Hao Y, Zhou H, Tian T, Zhang W, Zhou X, Shen Q, et al. Data centers waste heat recovery technologies: Review and evaluation. Applied Energy 2025;384:125489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125489.
[35] Nagpal H, Spriet J, Murali MK, McNabola A. Heat Recovery from Wastewater—A Review of Available Resource. Water 2021;13:1274. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091274.
[36] Li H, Chen Q, Zhang X, Finney KN, Sharifi VN, Swithenbank J. Evaluation of a biomass drying process using waste heat from process industries: A case study. Applied Thermal Engineering 2012;35:71–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2011.10.009.
[37] Kim YM, Shin DG, Kim CG, Cho GB. Single-loop organic Rankine cycles for engine waste heat recovery using both low- and high-temperature heat sources. Energy 2016;96:482–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.092.
[38] Aghaali H, Ångström H-E. A review of turbocompounding as a waste heat recovery system for internal combustion engines. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2015;49:813–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.144.
[39] Bai T, Yao Y, Hu B, Feng J, Jin Z. Thermodynamic analysis of exhaust waste heat recovery in a compound open absorption heat pump system. Applied Thermal Engineering 2024;257:124387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2024.124387.
[40] Pan-European Thermal Atlas 5.2 n.d. https://euf.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8d51f3708ea54fb9b732ba0c94409133 (accessed December 6, 2025).
[41] Dalle Nogare G, Cozzini M. Report on the GIS tool for waste heat recovery opportunities individuation. 2024.
[42] Huang B, Bühler F, Holm FM. Industrial energy mapping: THERMCYC WP6 2015.
[43] Homepage. EnergyMAPS n.d. https://energymaps.eu/ (accessed April 22, 2026).
[44] Pelda J, Reuter S, Cozzini M, Gebetsroither-Geringer E, Salaymeh A, Paradiso R, et al. MEMPHIS 2.0 - Advanced Algorithm for Spatial Identification, Evaluation of Temporal Availability and Economic Assessment of Waste Heat Aources and their Local Representation: Executive Summary 2023.
[45] Shen C, Zhao K, Ge J, Zhou Q. Analysis of Building Energy Consumption in a Hospital in the Hot Summer and Cold Winter Area. Energy Procedia 2019;158:3735–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.883.
[46] International Ice Hockey Federation. IIHF Ice Rink Guide 2026.
[47] Bointner R, Toleikyte A, Atanasiu B, Woods R, De Ferrari A, Farinea C, et al. Shopping malls features in EU-28 and Norway. Report elaborated under the FP7 project CommONEnergy: Re-conceptualising shopping malls from consumerism to energy conservation. 2014.
[48] Zuccari F, Santiangeli A, Orecchini F. Energy analysis of swimming pools for sports activities: cost effective solutions for efficiency improvement. Energy Procedia 2017;126:123–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.131.
[49] Anania D, Miškić J, Pukšec T, Cozzini M. Achieving efficient district heating targets in a Croatian network: heat source mapping and techno-economic scenarios analysis. Proceedings of the 19th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling: The International Research Conference on Heating and Cooling Networks, vol. 12, Springer Nature; 2026.
[50] HeatMineDH Explore 2025. https://cities.ait.ac.at/heatminedh/.
[51] Data Center Map - Colocation, Cloud and Connectivity n.d. https://www.datacentermap.com/ (accessed December 6, 2025).